'North Korea wants a peace'
时间:2024-09-21 19:34:15 来源:泸州新闻网
Latest provocation aimed at improving negotiation position
By Kim Jae-kyoung
SINGAPORE -- North Korea's latest test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) aims to get an edge over the U.S. and its rivals in a negotiation, S&P Global Ratings said, Wednesday.
In its analysis report on North Korean provocations, the global ratings agency said that North Korea "wants a peace" and seeks to "avoid a military conflict with the U.S.," wary that it could lead to regime change.
The report came right after Pyongyang fired an apparent ICBM from an area north of Pyongyang early Wednesday, resuming its provocations after a 75-day lull. The missile flew some 960 kilometers at an apogee of around 4,500 km.
The government said that it was apparently fired at a lofted angle, and if done at a standard one, it could have gone over 10,000 km, given its maximum altitude, which means that it could reach the U.S. mainland.
"These moves appear calculated to improve North Korea's negotiating position with its international rivals," said KimEng Tan and YeeFarn Phua, both based in Singapore.
"Consequently, we see a low likelihood that the country will raise tensions to a degree that makes an outright military conflict likely."
In their view, the Kim Jong-un regime is aware that a real fight with the U.S. will likely lead to regime change even as it brandishes its missile and nuclear capabilities.
According to their analysis, heavy investments in these advanced weapons and a weak economy leaves little funding for the country's conventional armed forces, and what the conventional armed forces get is disproportionally allocated to a small number of elite units.
"This leaves much of the country's large standing army poorly equipped, and large-scale military exercises are rare," they said.
"For this reason, triggering a war on the Korean peninsula could cost the regime its rule of the country," they added. "This also means that we see little likelihood that the North Koreans will use a long-range nuclear missile even if it is successful in developing the weapon."
Against this backdrop, they said that S&P has no plans to take negative ratings actions on sovereign ratings of South Korea and its neighboring countries.
Possibility of war increases
However, the two analysts said that the latest provocation has raised the possibility of a U.S. military action in response to another missile or nuclear test.
They expect that Pyongyang's such strategy could backfire with disastrous consequences for regional stability in Asia.
"The threat of a nuclear strike is adding greater urgency to how the U.S. views North Korea's nuclear development; any miscalculation in further provocations could lead to war," they said.
They pointed out that the North Korean leadership risks over-reaching in a future provocation if it does not appreciate this change.
"While still very unlikely, the possibility of a U.S. attack on North Korea in response to a future provocation has increased," they said.
"If conflict becomes significantly more likely, the sovereign ratings on a number of countries could be negatively affected."
By Kim Jae-kyoung
SINGAPORE -- North Korea's latest test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) aims to get an edge over the U.S. and its rivals in a negotiation, S&P Global Ratings said, Wednesday.
In its analysis report on North Korean provocations, the global ratings agency said that North Korea "wants a peace" and seeks to "avoid a military conflict with the U.S.," wary that it could lead to regime change.
The report came right after Pyongyang fired an apparent ICBM from an area north of Pyongyang early Wednesday, resuming its provocations after a 75-day lull. The missile flew some 960 kilometers at an apogee of around 4,500 km.
The government said that it was apparently fired at a lofted angle, and if done at a standard one, it could have gone over 10,000 km, given its maximum altitude, which means that it could reach the U.S. mainland.
"These moves appear calculated to improve North Korea's negotiating position with its international rivals," said KimEng Tan and YeeFarn Phua, both based in Singapore.
"Consequently, we see a low likelihood that the country will raise tensions to a degree that makes an outright military conflict likely."
In their view, the Kim Jong-un regime is aware that a real fight with the U.S. will likely lead to regime change even as it brandishes its missile and nuclear capabilities.
According to their analysis, heavy investments in these advanced weapons and a weak economy leaves little funding for the country's conventional armed forces, and what the conventional armed forces get is disproportionally allocated to a small number of elite units.
"This leaves much of the country's large standing army poorly equipped, and large-scale military exercises are rare," they said.
"For this reason, triggering a war on the Korean peninsula could cost the regime its rule of the country," they added. "This also means that we see little likelihood that the North Koreans will use a long-range nuclear missile even if it is successful in developing the weapon."
Against this backdrop, they said that S&P has no plans to take negative ratings actions on sovereign ratings of South Korea and its neighboring countries.
Possibility of war increases
However, the two analysts said that the latest provocation has raised the possibility of a U.S. military action in response to another missile or nuclear test.
They expect that Pyongyang's such strategy could backfire with disastrous consequences for regional stability in Asia.
"The threat of a nuclear strike is adding greater urgency to how the U.S. views North Korea's nuclear development; any miscalculation in further provocations could lead to war," they said.
They pointed out that the North Korean leadership risks over-reaching in a future provocation if it does not appreciate this change.
"While still very unlikely, the possibility of a U.S. attack on North Korea in response to a future provocation has increased," they said.
"If conflict becomes significantly more likely, the sovereign ratings on a number of countries could be negatively affected."
-
50 Years Later: The Revolutionary 8008 MicroprocessorBerrettini, Molinari out of Olympics with injuryThe powerful story behind Aimee's 'Sex Education' assault storyline围绕村集体经济发展建言献策一针一线串起两代人的传承故事辨别非法金融广告 人行雅安中支来“支招”Qualcomm is building 5G into chipsets and PCsAmazon's Ring doorbell update allows opt out of all video requestsSupercritical geothermal power: Limitless promise or impossible dream?US military families in South Korea? Top US general wants policy change
上一篇:尝“鲜”盛宴,等你来探!2024年清远西牛麻竹笋尝鲜季即将启幕
下一篇:Pakistan to host South Africa before ICC Women’s T20 World Cup
下一篇:Pakistan to host South Africa before ICC Women’s T20 World Cup
相关内容
- ·11 Unique Amaros and Liqueurs to Level Up Your Aperol Spritz
- ·Leslie Jones live
- ·喀什老乡、广东“亲戚”结伴共进,北疆之行见证粤喀情浓
- ·擦亮江门“军创”品牌!退役军人创业企业组团亮相湾区农业盛会
- ·Best tablet deals as of August 27
- ·Lime scooter bug sees riders injured after 'sudden excessive braking'
- ·以本领的大提升抓落实
- ·Is this toy saying 'brainstorm' or 'green needle?'
- ·Tesla issues recall for 9,100 Model X cars
- ·Beethoven's 'Ode to Joy' is smashing the UK charts thanks to Brexit
- ·Twitter looks to let you hide replies to your tweets
- ·Energizer's 18,000mAh battery phone is as thick as 3 normal phones
- ·Apple's iPhone 17 will come with a huge RAM upgrade, report claims
- ·广交会不仅卖产品,还能卖产线!传统产业焕新觅商机
- ·Microsoft bolsters cloud security with more AI threat detection
- ·擦亮江门“军创”品牌!退役军人创业企业组团亮相湾区农业盛会
最新内容
- ·“新丰味”喜获中国首届县域品牌擂台赛十大营销创新品牌
- ·North Korea rejects COVID
- ·Tesla's 'Full Self
- ·诚信为本 有诉必回
- ·Google Search tries new tactics for limiting explicit deepfakes
- ·Instagram might soon let you send multiple photos and videos in DMs
- ·Football rule book from 1859 sells for £57,000
- ·Main opposition party to send delegation to US to discuss vaccine cooperation
- ·Nvidia GeForce Now Ultimate vs. New Graphics Card
- ·农技“轻骑兵”组团式走进梅州市蕉岭县
推荐内容
热点内容
- ·蒙顶山茶有了专属茶器
- ·喀什老乡、广东“亲戚”结伴共进,北疆之行见证粤喀情浓
- ·Huawei sues Verizon for allegedly using patents without permission
- ·Lime scooter bug sees riders injured after 'sudden excessive braking'
- ·The Analog Embrace: How Some Experiences Are Surviving the Digital Age
- ·广交会不仅卖产品,还能卖产线!传统产业焕新觅商机
- ·Football rule book from 1859 sells for £57,000
- ·N. Korea unlikely to carry out provocations ahead of S. Korea
- ·Police bust crypto scammer who received plastic surgery to evade arrest
- ·南农晨读|粤师耀苗乡