'North Korea's denuclearization becomes less likely'
时间:2024-09-23 10:29:04 来源:泸州新闻网
By Kim Jae-kyoung
The prospects for North Korea denuclearization negotiations have become pessimistic as the United States is turning more lenient toward the reclusive regime.
James Bindenagel, an international security expert based in Germany, is one of the pessimists who expect that the nuclear talks are unlikely to succeed.
His skepticism is based on North Korea's history of breaking promises over the past decades by delaying negotiations for key processes, such as the declaration of nuclear sites and verification agreements.
"After that quick historical reference, I expect North Korea will keep its nuclear weapons," Bindenagel said in a recent interview.
Bindenagel is currently the Henry Kissinger Professor for Governance and International Security at Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms University in Bonn, Germany.
"We saw no progress from North Korea from Pompeo's empty handed return from Pyongyang, without a meeting with Kim," he added. "Kim won recognition and gave up nothing. Denuclearization of the North is less likely."
The pessimistic view came as U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday in Russia that there was no hurry to denuclearize the North, a shift from his earlier stance calling for speedy denuclearization.
In a cabinet hearing Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said that denuclearization will not come soon, saying, "There's a lot of work to do. It may take some time to get where we need to go."
The former U.S ambassador to Germany believes that Pompeo's visit to Pyongyang in early July was a good indicator that ongoing nuclear talks will fall by the wayside.
"The North has no firm commitment to give up its nuclear weapons and Kim chose not to meet Pompeo to begin talks," he said.
"There are not even confidence building measures that could lead to trust in Kim. In fact, the return of the remains of U.S. soldiers from the Korean War gives little hope of progress on nuclear issues."
Another reason behind Bindenagel's skepticism is Kim Jong-un's remarks about denuclearization at the historic summit with President Trump in Singapore on June 12.
"Kim stated his goal was denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, not North Korea's denuclearization, which would end the U.S. guarantee for South Korea, which has the U.S. forces with the nuclear deterrent," he said.
He pointed out that Kim's demand for denuclearization of the peninsula would alter the geo-strategic position of China, the U.S. and Japan.
"Kim can stoke the fires of nationalism at home with the support of growing nationalism in China, accelerated by the Trump tariffs. The warning is clear _ first tariffs, then war," he said.
WTO becomes nominal
Bindenagel forecasts that trade confrontations between the U.S. and China will further escalate as the World Trade Organization (WTO) is losing its capability to mediate international disputes.
"The international trading system currently teeters on collapse as the WTO, driver of worldwide prosperity, and ensurer of fair trade, has lost its function," he said.
"In an increasingly globalized world, the WTO faces vacancies of judges that will render it unable to carry out its rule-enforcing role."
The tension between the two economic giants deepened after China announced Monday that it had filed a complaint to the WTO when Trump threatened to levy tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Bindenagel believes that Trump is not wrong in identifying China's protected trading position, in that China, a WTO member since 2001, benefits unfairly with protectionist policies from its status as a developing country, while having become the second largest economy in the world.
The problem of tit for tat tariffs, according to Bindenagel, is that escalation feeds anti-globalist populism that left unchecked will undermine economic prosperity, which is not possible without trade.
"The escalation of tariffs easily leads to militant nationalism, illiberalism, protectionism and xenophobic reaction against others," he said.
From his perspective, Trump's tariffs are designed to create a few winners and to ignore the losers.
"Historically, protectionist tariffs were tried in the 1930s. The Trump tariffs evoke the memory of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that were imposed in a zero-sum game," he said.
"That is the same playbook as today with Trump. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce."
The prospects for North Korea denuclearization negotiations have become pessimistic as the United States is turning more lenient toward the reclusive regime.
James Bindenagel, an international security expert based in Germany, is one of the pessimists who expect that the nuclear talks are unlikely to succeed.
His skepticism is based on North Korea's history of breaking promises over the past decades by delaying negotiations for key processes, such as the declaration of nuclear sites and verification agreements.
James Bindenagel |
Bindenagel is currently the Henry Kissinger Professor for Governance and International Security at Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms University in Bonn, Germany.
"We saw no progress from North Korea from Pompeo's empty handed return from Pyongyang, without a meeting with Kim," he added. "Kim won recognition and gave up nothing. Denuclearization of the North is less likely."
The pessimistic view came as U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday in Russia that there was no hurry to denuclearize the North, a shift from his earlier stance calling for speedy denuclearization.
In a cabinet hearing Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said that denuclearization will not come soon, saying, "There's a lot of work to do. It may take some time to get where we need to go."
The former U.S ambassador to Germany believes that Pompeo's visit to Pyongyang in early July was a good indicator that ongoing nuclear talks will fall by the wayside.
U.S. President Donald Trump listens as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, left, speaks during a cabinet meeting on Wednesday at the White House in Washington, D.C. / AFP PHOTO |
"The North has no firm commitment to give up its nuclear weapons and Kim chose not to meet Pompeo to begin talks," he said.
"There are not even confidence building measures that could lead to trust in Kim. In fact, the return of the remains of U.S. soldiers from the Korean War gives little hope of progress on nuclear issues."
Another reason behind Bindenagel's skepticism is Kim Jong-un's remarks about denuclearization at the historic summit with President Trump in Singapore on June 12.
"Kim stated his goal was denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, not North Korea's denuclearization, which would end the U.S. guarantee for South Korea, which has the U.S. forces with the nuclear deterrent," he said.
He pointed out that Kim's demand for denuclearization of the peninsula would alter the geo-strategic position of China, the U.S. and Japan.
"Kim can stoke the fires of nationalism at home with the support of growing nationalism in China, accelerated by the Trump tariffs. The warning is clear _ first tariffs, then war," he said.
WTO becomes nominal
Bindenagel forecasts that trade confrontations between the U.S. and China will further escalate as the World Trade Organization (WTO) is losing its capability to mediate international disputes.
"The international trading system currently teeters on collapse as the WTO, driver of worldwide prosperity, and ensurer of fair trade, has lost its function," he said.
"In an increasingly globalized world, the WTO faces vacancies of judges that will render it unable to carry out its rule-enforcing role."
The tension between the two economic giants deepened after China announced Monday that it had filed a complaint to the WTO when Trump threatened to levy tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Bindenagel believes that Trump is not wrong in identifying China's protected trading position, in that China, a WTO member since 2001, benefits unfairly with protectionist policies from its status as a developing country, while having become the second largest economy in the world.
The problem of tit for tat tariffs, according to Bindenagel, is that escalation feeds anti-globalist populism that left unchecked will undermine economic prosperity, which is not possible without trade.
"The escalation of tariffs easily leads to militant nationalism, illiberalism, protectionism and xenophobic reaction against others," he said.
From his perspective, Trump's tariffs are designed to create a few winners and to ignore the losers.
"Historically, protectionist tariffs were tried in the 1930s. The Trump tariffs evoke the memory of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that were imposed in a zero-sum game," he said.
"That is the same playbook as today with Trump. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce."
-
NASA's new plan keeps Starliner astronauts in space until 2025Google Meet: Raise your hand in real life, and the new feature will detect itUS working to improve early warning system against N. Korean missile launches: US commander用心织牢疫情防控网格 用力提高茶叶管护水平Slot extends perfect Liverpool startGuardian's pregnancy tissue photos backfired on abortion rights supporters.[Photo News] Protest in Seoul8 Spooky Locations to Explore Japanese LoreSpaceship tech slashes energy usage of existing AC systemsBest Black Friday robot vacuum deals 2023
相关内容
- ·CPUs Don't Matter For 4K Gaming... Wrong!
- ·用心织牢疫情防控网格 用力提高茶叶管护水平
- ·Guardian's pregnancy tissue photos backfired on abortion rights supporters.
- ·Trump's 2019 NASA budget request reveals plans to return to the moon
- ·雅安市第四人民医院:工娱治疗让患者康复之路充满希望
- ·The Culinary Delights Hiding Below, Inside, and Above Government Buildings
- ·Black Friday gaming console deal: Xbox Series S and Series X bundles are up to $120 off
- ·China trumps US in satellite navigation technology, warns new report
- ·24 of the Oldest Trees in the World
- ·S. Korea, US revise deterrence strategy amid growing NK threats
- ·开办社区大学 丰富居民生活
- ·Ford Mustang Mach
- ·Best smart home deal: The Amazon Smart Thermostat is just $63.99
- ·“把脉”工程进度 “问诊”施工顽疾
- ·11 Heavenly Restaurants Hidden Inside Houses of Worship
- ·China trumps US in satellite navigation technology, warns new report
最新内容
- ·Upgrade Your Monitor, Not Your GPU
- ·N. Korea ramps up efforts to attain 2022 economic goals amid food shortage
- ·‘England match litmus test of our potential’
- ·S. Korea, US discuss NK cyber threats
- ·Tesla's big software update includes something called 'Night Curfew'
- ·Pakistan keen to break India jinx at Ahmedabad
- ·对照“十个严禁”检视自身 增强思想自觉行动自觉
- ·9 Curious and Quirky English Church Finds
- ·The Astounding World of Automata
- ·立足工作实际 发挥人大作用
推荐内容
热点内容
- ·Spate of defections show Kim Jong
- ·弘扬奥运精神 助力学生成长
- ·Trump's 2019 NASA budget request reveals plans to return to the moon
- ·11 Heavenly Restaurants Hidden Inside Houses of Worship
- ·尝“鲜”盛宴,等你来探!2024年清远西牛麻竹笋尝鲜季即将启幕
- ·US set to deploy B
- ·S. Korea, US discuss NK cyber threats
- ·New head of U.N. human rights office in Seoul urges North Korea to improve rights situation
- ·Coach jailed for sexual exploitation of underage athlete
- ·支持产业科技互促双强,广东农信贯彻“新春第一会”精神